Thanks to the recent rally, Nvidia (NVDA) has narrowed its year-to-date losses to just about 15%. The stock has whipsawed this year as news from China and the White House has impacted investor sentiment. Recently, commentary from tech giants during their first-quarter earnings calls has helped drive NVDA shares higher. 

In this article, we’ll examine what leading tech companies had to say about their artificial intelligence (AI) capex during the recent earnings call and examine what Big Money is doing about Nvidia. 

Tech Companies Continue to Invest in AI

To begin with, tech companies are not backing off their AI capex. For instance, Amazon’s Q1 capex was $24.3 billion, which is consistent with its 2025 guide of “around $100 billion.” During the Q1 2025 earnings call, Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky said that “the majority of this spend is to support the growing need for technology infrastructure.”

He added, “It primarily relates to AWS as we invest to support demand for our AI services and increasingly in custom silicon like Trainium.” Notably, companies like Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG), which are among the major buyers of Nvidia’s chips, are also working on their own custom chips. While they will continue buying Nvidia’s top-of-the-line GPUs, they are looking to route some money toward their in-house chips.

Days before the earnings call, speaking at a conference organized by the Hamm Institute for American Energy, Amazon’s vice president of global data centers, Kevin Miller, refuted reports of a data center slowdown, saying, “There’s been really no significant change.” He added, “We continue to see very strong demand, and we’re looking both in the next couple years as well as long term and seeing the numbers only going up.”

Microsoft Maintained Capex Guidance 

Microsoft (MSFT) also maintained its capex guidance and downplayed reports of the cancellation of some data center leases. In the March quarter, the company’s capex did fall sequentially after many quarters, but CFO Amy Hood attributed it to “normal variability from the timing of delivery of data center leases.” Microsoft also maintained its previous guidance and said that capex growth in its fiscal year 2026, which will begin in July, will be lower than that of the current fiscal year. Also, it said that the capex would be tilted towards short-lived assets that are “more directly correlated to revenue than long-lived assets.”

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, incidentally, is among the rare tech leaders in the U.S. who have talked about the possibility of a GPU oversupply in the future, which could drive down prices.

Data Center Growth 

During its earnings call last month, data center supplier Vertiv (VRT) also pointed to continued spending toward data centers, which CEO Giordano Albertazzi said would drive the company’s short-term as well as long-term growth.

Alphabet also gave an upbeat commentary on its AI capex and said the significant increase in capex in recent quarters “reflects confidence in the opportunities offered by AI across our business.” CFO Ruth Porat added, “we expect quarterly capex throughout the year to be roughly at or above the Q1 level.”

The best news for Nvidia investors, meanwhile, came from Meta Platforms (META), whose Q1 earnings call was predominantly focused on the company’s AI strategy. Meta raised its 2025 capex guidance to between $64 billion and $72 billion compared to the previous guidance of $60 billion to $65 billion. The higher guidance is on account of increased outlay toward data centers.

Elon Musk’s xAI is also said to be considering a $20 billion capital raise. The billionaire’s AI company is expected to use a significant percentage of the capital raise to build its AI hardware infrastructure, which would invariably mean buying more chips from Nvidia.

Overall, I would say that the commentary on AI capex was reasonably bullish during the recent earnings calls, especially given concerns over the possibility of tech giants rethinking their aggressive capex.

Nvidia Stock Forecast

That said, not all analysts are sold on Nvidia’s growth story. Last week, Seaport Global Securities analyst Jay Goldberg downgraded Nvidia to a “Sell,” assigning a Street-low target price of $100. Goldberg happens to be the only major Wall Street analyst to have a “Sell” rating on NVDA – something which would have almost seemed blasphemous a couple of months back. 

However, brokerages have been somewhat circumspect on Nvidia, and several sell-side analysts slashed Nvidia’s target price last month amid the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

Big Money also seems wary of Nvidia, and the latest Barron’s poll of professional investors shows that 15 of the 119 participants thought Nvidia was the most overvalued stock in the market. Only Tesla (TSLA), which has always divided Wall Street over its valuation, was rated more overvalued.

To sum it up, market sentiments have improved significantly after the recent tech earnings, as concerns over a slowdown in AI spending by U.S. tech giants have abated for now. However, concerns over the long-term sustainability of Nvidia's growth trajectory and rising competition from China are making some apprehensive. We'll probably get to hear more on this later this month when Nvidia reports quarterly earnings.