Valued at a market cap of $18.8 billion, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) is a REIT focused on owning, managing, and developing high-quality apartment communities across the Southeast, Southwest, and Mid-Atlantic U.S. As of Sept. 30, 2024, MAA owned 104,469 apartment units across 16 states and the District of Columbia.

Shares of the Memphis, Tennessee-based company have outperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks. MAA has gained 17.2% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied 11.9%. Moreover, shares of Mid-America Apartment are up 3.7% on a YTD basis, compared to SPX’s 1% gain. 

Zooming in further, Mid-America Apartment’s outperformance becomes more evident when compared to the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLRE) 8.7% gain over the past 52 weeks.

Despite MAA reporting weaker-than-expected Q1 2025 revenue of $549.3 million on Apr. 30, shares rose 1.5% the next day due to stronger-than-expected core FFO per share of $2.20. Investors were encouraged by strong operating metrics, including a 95.6% same-store occupancy rate, 30 basis points higher year-over-year, and a record-low resident turnover of 41.5%. The management's commentary on improved lease pricing trends and positive leasing momentum for the spring and summer seasons also boosted investor confidence. 

For the current fiscal year, ending in December 2025, analysts expect MAA’s core FFO per share to decline 1.1% year-over-year to $8.78. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing on another occasion. 

Among the 27 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 11 “Strong Buy” ratings, three “Moderate Buys,” 10 “Holds,” and three “Strong Sells.”

On May 15, Raymond James downgraded MAA to “Outperform” with a reduced price target of $175, citing a closed valuation gap with peers and a sharp 30% drop in new multifamily supply deliveries since last fall.

As of writing, MAA is trading below the mean price target of $170.38. The Street-high price target of $194 implies a potential upside of nearly 21% from the current price.