E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 6006.75, up 60.75 on Friday and 90.75 on the week

NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 21,789.50, up 207.25 on Friday and 412.75 on the week

E-mini S&P futures finished Friday at the highest level since the month-end rip on February 28th, which was 6019.50. The E-mini NQ closed at its highest since February 21st, the day that sparked the rollover. On Friday, the Nonfarm Payrolls report was solid. Job growth came in better than expected for May at 139k versus 126k, but the prior two months were revised lower by 30k. Wage Growth was the strongest component, coming in at +0.4% m/m, the highest since January, versus +0.3% expected, and +3.9% y/y, versus +3.7%. The odds of a cut at the Fed’s July meeting have all but become priced away, now at 14.5% versus 23.9% one week ago. The Federal Reserve is in its blackout period, ahead of next week’s meeting. Although a rate cut is not expected, we will get the quarterly update of the bank’s Summary of Economic Projections. This will all be front in center as Wednesday’s CPI report quickly approaches.

Friday morning, we noted the shallow end of our upside targets, rare major four-star resistance, in both the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ were tested. While there was a more significant test in the E-mini S&P on the opening bell range that was rejected Friday morning, the E-mini NQ traded to a lower high Friday than Thursday. Although the tape is firm this morning, we are on the lookout for some near-term exhaustion. If a reversal takes place, we maintain the supports highlighted here Friday, “Despite the weak tape late yesterday (Thursday), trading to a low of 5928.75, we are not going to adjust major three-star support in the E-mini S&P and still see 5938.25-5943.50 as a significant line of defense, with additional levels listed below. We also maintain that tech can be the leader here and this way will be paved as long as price action holds above major three-star support in the E-mini NQ at 21,509-21,545.” That said, we will be watching our Pivot and point of balance through the opening hour, and continued price action above here at…

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