European Commodity Winners: 

Cocoa #7 (CAU25), +6.3%

Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s top producer of cocoa, increased its export volumes by 6.7% year-over-year to 1.6 MMT as of June 1. However, the pace has eased from earlier highs, indicating a potential tightening of supply in the near term. Recent rainfall forecasts for Ghana and Ivory Coast have alleviated short-term drought concerns, offering some relief and contributing to Monday’s decline of around 0.8–1%.

Market conditions remain strained, with sluggish exports, quality challenges, and uneven weather continuing to weigh on supply.

Analysts caution that despite recent rainfall, dry zones persist across the region. Industry sources point to a global cocoa shortfall and the potential for prices to reach their highest levels in over 60 years — though concerns over bean quality have somewhat restrained the rally.

The chart is attempting to break the 10, 20 and 50 EMAs, which are all at the same level (6,575). Long traders have an opportunity now if the indicators start to point upwards. The level 6,000 has been a key support and if broken then next is 6,500. These areas provide very reliable entry points.

Heating Oil (LOQ25), +4%

Heating oil futures have posted their strongest weekly performance in recent weeks, rebounding after declines in May, led by seasonal demand patterns. The market appears to be in a short-term upswing, but watch inventory dynamics and global crude (CLN25) output signals.

Renewed U.S.-China trade optimism boosted broader oil markets, driving crude prices higher and supporting gains in heating oil.

Weather forecasts projecting above-average temperatures through mid-June raised expectations for increased demand.

Distillate inventories rose by 4.2 million barrels in the week ending May 30 – exceeding expectations – which helped ease some of the upward pressure on prices.

The near-term outlook is positive as continued macro momentum plus summer heat-driven distillate demand could sustain a bullish bias.

In terms of potential headwinds, inventory builds may cap upside. OPEC+ output decisions could feed into broader energy price trends.

Prices have just broken upwards from the 10, 20 and 50 EMAs after a sharp drop ended May 30. The problem is that a similar pattern on May 14 produced a top and reversal. Only values above 2.12 will confirm an extension of the current move. Watch out for the next move.The daily RSI marks 58 and statistically, values above 65 were rare last month.  

Rapeseed (XRQ25),+3.65% 

Strength in the oil market lent upward momentum to seed oil prices, contributing to bullish sentiment for rapeseed.

Renewed optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade relations boosted demand expectations and lifted sentiment across agricultural markets.

Updated projections from Ukraine’s agrarian ministry reduced expected oilseed production – rapeseed included – by around 5%, heightening concerns over tight global supply. Flooding in Brazil disrupted soybean production, indirectly supporting rapeseed markets, as both Brazil and India are major rapeseed export competitors.

From the start of April, the range has been support at 470 and resistance at 490.5. The current setting is hitting the top of the range and facing a key level to break. Long traders might wait for prices to overcome this level before entering a long position. 

The 14-day RSI marks almost 60 and matches two previous pivot reversal levels. Most traders will keep trading the range shorting at current levels, but any breakout above 491 should activate stop losses.

European Commodity Losers  

Corn (XBQ25) , -1.55%

Rainfall outlook and heavy speculative short positions may pressure the European corn market further in the short term.

Weather remains pivotal. Drier-than-expected conditions during the critical June-July pollination phases could reverse the trend.

Key upcoming events include USDA’s June 30 stocks report and U.S.-China trade developments. Ongoing export and ethanol data also remains important to watch. Forecasts for rainfall across parts of the U.S. Corn Belt boosted confidence in crop conditions.

There is currently a lack of bullish catalysts. Athough old-crop stocks remain tight, robust planting progress and plentiful rainfall continue to weigh on prices.

Corn has been in a strong downtrend since March 21 and still remains so. Prices are well below the 10, 20 and 50 EMAs. The RSI marks 30.51, a low level, but cannot be taken yet as a signal in such a trend. They key signal here is the 10 EMA (193.79). As long as prices remain below it, short traders are in control.

Feed Wheat (LWX25),  -0.78%

Intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine heightened pressure on global soft wheat supplies, adding upward price momentum in the last sessions.

Plus, ongoing dry spring weather in northern Europe – particularly in France, Germany, and Poland – alongside drought in Russia and potential frost damage, raised production concerns.
Despite a stronger British pound, which typically dampens U.K. wheat prices, broader global factors and positive market momentum outweighed the currency effect

The indicators are still bearish, as is true for most European agricultural contracts since March 2025. Prices are below the 10, 20 and 50 EMAs, although at 177.20 (as of June 2) a bullish engulfing candle pattern could signal an end to the downtrned. This, combined with any near breakouts to the upside of the 10 EMAs, could signal a trend change.