In early 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index faced a turbulent period, officially entering a bear market with a staggering 6% single-day drop on April 4—the largest since March 2020. This plunge erased $11 trillion in U.S. stock market value since mid-February, with recession odds climbing above 60%. Investors watched in dismay as the tech-heavy index fell 20% from its prior record, signaling a bear market that rattled even seasoned traders. Yet, by mid-May, the Nasdaq had staged a stunning recovery after declining 25%, surging over 20% from its April 7 low on its way back towards all-time highs, driven by a resurgence in big tech stocks and, at the time, what appeared to be a US-China trade truce. This rapid rebound underscores a critical lesson: markets are unpredictable, and having a strategy, not guessing, is the key to navigating their volatility.

Source: Barchart 

The 2025 bear market was a stark reminder of the Nasdaq's cyclical nature. Historically, the index has endured nine bear markets since its inception in 1971, each followed by a recovery. The latest episode, while jarring, aligns with this pattern. By May 12, the Nasdaq Composite had not only exited correction territory but also entered a new bull market, erasing losses and trading in the green for the year by May 13. This resilience underscores the Nasdaq's dominance within the U.S. stock market, which in turn commands unparalleled global influence. The U.S. stock market has a significantly larger market capitalization compared to other countries. This means the total value of all publicly traded companies in the U.S. is much higher than in other nations. The Nasdaq, with its focus on technology and innovation, often sets the tone for global markets, as evidenced by its ability to rebound swiftly from downturns. This dominance stems from the U.S.'s robust economic framework, deep liquidity, and the world's most innovative companies—think Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft—driving investor confidence.

Seasonal Pattern 

For traders, the Nasdaq's volatility presents both a challenge and an opportunity, especially with the upcoming seasonal buying window, which has proven remarkably consistent. Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI) research has found that over the past 15 years, this buying window—typically spanning approximately June 11 to July 15 —has delivered gains in the Nasdaq 100 with a 100% occurrence rate. In three of those years, the index experienced no daily closing drawdown, demonstrating its historical reliability. The average profit during this period has been $7,700 per mini-Nasdaq futures contract, translating to 385 points (based on a $20 per point value). This predictable pattern offers traders a rare edge in a market where certainty is elusive.

Source: MRCI 

The blue line is the 15-year average of Nasdaq price activity. As we approach the seasonal window (yellow box), traders should be aware of the 100% accuracy of this pattern. The market has rallied significantly from the bear market lows and may feel like it won't go higher, but the trend is up; we are approaching all-time highs, and it's hard to ignore MRCI research, which offers additional historical research to a trader's analysis.

Source: MRCI 

The table above reveals MRCI's hypothetical results for the past 15 years. 

As a crucial reminder, while seasonal patterns can provide valuable insights, they should not be the basis for trading decisions. Traders must consider various technical and fundamental indicators, risk management strategies, and market conditions to make informed and balanced trading decisions.  

Products to Participate 

To participate in this seasonal opportunity, traders can explore several tradable products tied to the Nasdaq 100. 

• Mini-Nasdaq futures (NQ) are a popular choice, offering leveraged exposure to the index with a contract size manageable for retail traders. Each point movement equals $20, making the 385-point average gain a compelling $7,700 per contract. Retail traders may also consider micro-Nasdaq futures (NM), which offer smaller contract sizes for more precise risk control.
• Exchange-traded funds (ETFs), such as the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), provide a straightforward way to track the Nasdaq 100 without the leverage or complexity associated with futures.
• For those who prefer options, QQQ options allow for precise strategies, ranging from buying calls to capture upside to selling puts for premium income. 

Each product suits different risk tolerances and capital levels, but all provide access to the Nasdaq's seasonal tailwind.

In Closing…

The significance of following trends cannot be overstated. Guessing market direction often leads to costly missteps, as the swift reversal of the 2025 bear market proved. Technical indicators, such as moving averages, the relative strength index (RSI), or breakouts above key resistance levels, can signal entry points during the seasonal window. Historical data supports this approach: the Nasdaq's 15-year streak of gains in this period isn't luck—it's a statistical edge. Yet, traders must remain disciplined. The absence of drawdowns in three of those years doesn't guarantee smooth sailing, and risk management—stop-loss orders, position sizing, and diversification—is critical.

This is your challenge: don't let the Nasdaq's volatility intimidate you. The 2025 rebound proves markets reward those who act on data, not fear. The seasonal buying window is a proven potential opportunity, backed by 15 years of flawless performance and an average profit of $7,700 per mini-Nasdaq contract. Equip yourself with the right tools—whether the QQQ ETFs, futures, or options—and leverage the Nasdaq's dominance and predictable patterns. Prepare your due diligence, respect your strategy, and trade with confidence. The market doesn't wait for the hesitant. Are you ready to seize this moment?