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“Have Natural Gas Prices Bottomed?”

by Jim Roemer - Meteorologist - Commodity Trading Advisor - Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict - Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter

Edited by Scott Mathews

• Weekend Report - August 8-10, 2025

The report below was sent out to WeatherWealth clients early on August 5th, when front-month natural gas futures were trading around $2.90. What will happen next? What will our hurricane season and winter forecast mean for the market? Feel free to sign up for a 2-week complimentary trial subscription here

(You may cancel at any time.)

About two weeks ago, I put out a more bearish outlook for natural gas. My feeling was that prices would fall below $3, given my cooler forecast for the US and fewer LNG exports to Europe. Cooler European weather was also part of the picture.

Source: Barchart.com and WeatherWealth Newsletter

We can see how the cool US weather helped pressure the market during the last couple of weeks. Natural gas traders were anticipating a hot summer. Once again, many models were wrong (weeks ago). The cool weather also means a record US corn crop. I still feel corn prices may eventually test $3.80 per bushel. The StoneX corn and soybean estimates, if realized, are extremely bearish. Soybeans, in parts of the eastern and southern corn belt, need some rain, and drier weather in the western belt would be more beneficial, as crop conditions have come down just slightly.

Source: WeatherBELL Analytics - Used by permission

Source: StoneX

For the most part, other than “briefly” two weeks ago, I have been saying $3.80-$4.00 corn and $9.50 soybeans since April or May on my long-range forecasts. I still think this is eventually likely.

These hot temps for next week “may” keep soybean prices (for now) from falling a lot more ahead of the August 12th USDA report. Nevertheless, any major consistent crop stress to beans is probably unlikely at this point. In some locations, warmer weather is needed.

Source: StormVistaWxModels - Used by permission

Here are the reasons that being too bearish toward natural gas at these prices ($2.90) may not be warranted. 

A possible rally may be in store for nat gas, even though I am not giving any specific buy recommendations. 

Let’s wait until we see a major Gulf hurricane. In addition, this market may be easier to trade as we head towards winter. 

• Extreme heat earlier last week means this week’s EIA may be slightly bullish vs the 5-year average. However, stocks remain large, and there is no real panic by producers for any squeeze situation that will warrant prices back to $3.50 or higher at any time soon. 

  Source (map below) NOAA 

• Specs are now leaning too short in the market. When this happens, short-covering can often ensue, though I do not expect any major bull market.
• Models are a bit warmer for both Europe and the US as we head deeper into August. Although there is no major sustained heat (100°F or 37.8°C), it may be enough to stop the bleeding at some point.

Source: StormVistaWxModels - Used by permission

• Hurricane season is ramping up. While the trade will not look at this yet, and it may not happen, as some models are suggesting a Gulf hurricane by mid-late August.

Source: StormVistaWxModels - Used by permission

• Seasonal tendencies: Natural gas prices tend to bottom by August if there is normal to hot US weather. For some years, another factor can be the hype of hurricane season, and all the hoopla that goes with it. 

• Source: MRCI - Used by permission

So… what to do in the natural gas futures for the longer term? Subscribe to a 2-week free trial via the link at the top of this report!

Thanks For Your Interest In Commodity Weather!!!

Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and the BestWeather Team

Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He is also a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he commands a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.